By
Andrea Hangst
(AFC North Lead Writer)
on November 16, 2013
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The Bengals cannot afford another down performance by Andy Dalton this week.
Rob Carr/Getty Images

For the past two weeks, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has played the worst football of his brief NFL career. With passer ratings in the 50s, six interceptions to two touchdowns, a completion percentage below 50 last week and over 50 pass attempts per game, it's not surprising that the Bengals have lost both of their games as a result.

However, this hasn't been the case for all of Dalton's 2013 season. His recent slide comes on the heels of the best three-game stretch of his career, all of which featured Dalton throwing three or more touchdown passes and for 300 or more yards.

There are two significant factors as to why the Bengals have faltered thanks to Dalton in the past two weeks. One is that they lacked offensive balance in those two games; the other is the Miami Dolphins, who seem to serve as Dalton's personal brand of Kryptonite.

As long as the Bengals can put forth a balanced offensive attack against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and as long as Dalton can truly shake the specter of the last two weeks from his mind, the Bengals can defeat the Browns and further extend their lead in the AFC North.

NFL Films previews this week's Bengals-Browns matchup.

It's never a good sign for any quarterback—Dalton, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, whoever—when they have attempted 50 or more passes in a game. Even worse is when it happens in close contests like the two the Bengals have lost in the past two weeks.

Against the Ravens, Dalton attempted 51 passes, compared to 31 total Bengals rushes. It was a similar unbalanced effort in the previous week's loss to the Dolphins, with Dalton attempting 53 passes, while they had 35 total rushing attempts.

Yes, both games featured the Bengals playing from behind in the second half, necessitating more passes in an attempt to get the quick score. And yes, it paid off, with the Bengals closing the points gap and getting into overtime in both games. But there's passing when playing from behind, and then there's a total abandonment of balance, with the latter marking both of those Bengals' losses.

Establishing an early lead is a way the Bengals can protect themselves from asking Dalton to throw four-dozen passes. But even if they do fall behind to the Browns, they must keep in mind how Dalton responds to a heavy workload.

AFC North Standings After 10 Weeks
Team
Record
Cincinnati Bengals
6-4
Cleveland Browns
4-5
Baltimore Ravens
4-5
Pittsburgh Steelers
3-6
(Bengals on bye in Week 12)

They should also recognize that their one-two punch at running back with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard can be as or more useful than Dalton dropping back, depending on the situation. Running also would help Dalton succeed at play-action passing, something the Bengals simply need to do more often.

The 3.8 yards per carry that Bernard and Green-Ellis average combined may not seem that impressive. However, Green-Ellis' power makes him a useful tool in short-yardage situations and Bernard's burst and elusiveness make him a threat to reach the second level on every touch.

Just because Dalton has an array of impressive weapons available to him in the passing game doesn't mean running the ball isn't worth the Bengals' time, even when playing from behind. If effective, it increases the offense's time of possession, giving the defense necessary rest time. It also means that Dalton doesn't need to carry the team on his back during a period of low confidence.

Dalton is a very similar quarterback to the Ravens' Joe Flacco. He's capable of hot streaks, cold streaks and is unpredictable on an almost-weekly basis. Like Flacco, Dalton has helped the Bengals reach the playoffs in every season he's been with his team, but also like Flacco, he has the benefit of a good defense and effective running game to keep his weaknesses from becoming liabilities.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Though Cleveland's defense doesn't give up many rushing yards, the Bengals must run on Sunday to set Dalton up for success.

The problem with the Bengals attempting to strike an all-important offensive balance this week is how stingy Cleveland's defense has been against the run. They are allowing just 98.2 rushing yards per game on average, ranking them sixth in the league, and it's not because offenses aren't trying to run the ball against them. In fact, the Browns rank 18th in opponents' rushing attempts per game, at 27.6. Teams are putting forth their best rushing efforts against the Browns and it's not working out.

The Bengals rank 11th in rushing attempts per game, at 28.8, and 18th in rushing yards, at 108.1. Yards on the ground may be few on Sunday. Though that shouldn't mean 50 passes for Dalton again, Dalton needs to be mentally ready should he be called upon to step up. That's where the Bengals' loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago comes into play.

Last year, when the Bengals fell to the Dolphins in another bad Dalton performance (26 of 43, for 234 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks and just 5.44 yards per attempt), it was the beginning of a four-game losing streak.

Dalton looked like the bad version of himself—hearing footsteps, reacting poorly to pressure when it did come, making errant throws—in that game and the three that followed. It was as if that initial loss to the Dolphins had rattled his confidence.

Andy Dalton, Previous 2 Weeks & vs. Browns, Week 4
Opp.
Atts.
Comp.
Comp.%
Yds.
YPA
TD
INT
Sack
Dolphins
53
32
60.38%
338
5.7
Ravens
51
24
47.06%
274
5.4
Browns
42
23
54.76%
206
4.9
(Had 4-game losing streak, 2012, beginning with loss to Miami)

Maybe it's only a coincidence, but when the Dolphins again got Dalton's number two weeks ago (32 of 53, for 338 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, a lost fumble, five sacks and 5.7 yards per attempt) he followed it up with yet another disappointing performance against the Ravens.

Considering Dalton's stat line from the Bengals' previous meeting this year—a loss—against the Browns (23 of 42, for 206 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, a lost fumble, two sacks and 4.9 yards per attempt), and this week he could be headed for disaster once again. He needs, more than ever, to shake off the last two weeks, forget about the Dolphins (and the Ravens) and move forward.

Dalton may not be the quarterback we saw for most of October, but he's not the one we've seen over the last two weeks, either. He's somewhere in the middle—good, effective, with myriad playmakers he can throw the football to—and he'll need to return to that level on Sunday to lead the Bengals to victory and preserve their lead in the division.

Play-action passing can both give the Bengals reason to run the ball more, which balances their offense, while also giving Dalton an outlet that can build back his confidence. The only problem? The Bengals don't seem terribly interested in play-action passing, despite their two backs, their (general) willingness to run and how much they've built up the passing resources around Dalton.

Andy Dalton, Play-Action 2013
Atts.
Comp.
YPA
Yds.
TD
INT
Rate
PA
56
34
9.8
551
102.6
Non-PA
327
205
7.1
2,310
14
11
84.0
via Pro Football Focus (subscription required)

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Dalton has attempted play-action passes on only 15.5 percent of his dropbacks. Of his 383 total pass attempts this year, only 56 have been of the play action variety. He's managed to complete 34 of them, for 551 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. He averages 9.8 yards per pass attempt on play-action passes, and has a 102.6 quarterback rating when throwing them.

Comparatively, Dalton has 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on non-play action passes, an average yards per attempt of 7.1 and a quarterback rating of 84. It seems like Dalton and the Bengals would both benefit from more play-action passing in the offensive repertoire. Better still would be for Dalton to run the play-action fake with Bernard and then target him with the passes.

According to Football Outsiders, the Browns defense ranks 30th against running backs in the passing game, giving up an average of 40.7 receiving yards to backs this season. At the same time, Bernard has caught 38 of the 44 passes thrown his way, for 304 yards and three touchdowns. He is averaging eight yards per reception, has 316 yards after the catch (a 8.3-yard average) and has caused 12 missed tackles.

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns may be able to stop Bernard as a rusher, but they struggle greatly against running backs in the receiving game.

Among running backs, that makes him third-best in the league as a receiver. He's ninth in yards, seventh in yards after the catch, tied for second in receiving touchdowns among backs, all while catching 86.4 percent of passes thrown his way.

By throwing to Bernard, it neutralizes the Browns' defensive prowess against the run, allows the Bengals to use play-action passing and gives Dalton a confidence boost in asking him to throw short, high-percentage passes. And, if it works, it certainly gives the Bengals a better chance to defeat the Browns rather than asking Dalton to throw 50 times like the last two weeks.

Dalton needs his confidence back, while the Bengals also need to regain the offensive balance that led them to so much success through much of the season. By not abandoning the run despite Cleveland's strong defense, they can achieve all of this—plus a win—on Sunday.

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